The dilemma of Europe and Ukraine:
The Russians are playing “chess” and the Americans are playing “poker”
Europe and Ukraine are facing a grotesque dilemma. While Russia has been perfecting the bone-chillingly cold logic of chess for decades, the United States dominates with the deceptive unpredictability of a poker table. European diplomacy, which has not fully mastered either mode, is teetering between these two playing fields. Ukrainian President Zelensky is caught between two stools, forced to engage simultaneously with the rigidly calculated attrition of Russia and the erratic, capricious tug-of-war of American geopolitics.
Russia, with its decades of precision in the Great Game, acts according to the principles of a Karpov or Kasparov. Control of the center, long-term positioning, relentless material battles. The annexation of Crimea in 2014? A methodical endgame move that was strategically prepared long beforehand¹. The current war? A positional show of strength that relies on the West tiring, on superior material resources ultimately becoming obsolete through psychological attrition. Putin is the great endgame player: every pawn counts, every move is aimed at the next victory point.
The USA, on the other hand? A poker game like no other. It’s not about absolute control of the board, but about bluffing, tactical escalation, maximum profit with minimum effort. Proxy wars, sanctions roulette, suddenly reversed alliances: All this is not calculated chess logic, but the elastic opportunism of a player who knows that he does not always need the best hand as long as he bluffs his opponent into capitulation. Anyone who thinks that Washington is pursuing a long-term strategy is mistaken. What applies today can be thrown overboard tomorrow if the stakes are no longer worth it.
And Europe? In this scenario, a confused player sitting on a chessboard and wondering why everyone is drawing cards. Strategic long-term thinking? Not a chance. Tactical skill? Non-existent. Instead, a mixture of moral indignation and hectic crisis diplomacy, sacrificing a few pawns here and there without recognizing the actual plan.
Selensky has no choice. He has to operate in two different spheres at the same time. Facing Russia, it is an existential chess match in which every wrong move ends with the loss of the game. In relation to the USA, it is a poker game in which he has to play his cards to the maximum to avoid being complimented out of the game at some point with a petrified smile. Europe, on the other hand, has only one option: to finally master both the rules of chess and the subtle bluffing techniques of poker.
Because anyone who masters just one of these disciplines in this world will sooner or later be bamboozled or worn down in an endless endgame. You need to have the utmost control over your own board and at the same time be able to see through your opponent’s bluffs. Sun Tzu could not have put it better: Know when to fight an open battle, and know when to make your enemy believe the image of a battlefield that does not really exist.
The only way for Selensky – and for Europe – is to become world-class in all these disciplines as quickly as possible: as a brilliant chess strategist, as a masterful poker player and as a far-sighted, cunning prince following the teachings of Sun Tzu. Everything else means being manipulated at will by more experienced players.
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¹ Source: Wikipedia – Annexation of Crimea 2014: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexion_der_Krim_2014
There is evidence that Russia planned the annexation of Crimea in 2014 in advance. According to political scientist Daniel Treisman, Russian special forces were already put on alert on February 18, 2014, i.e. before the official start of the operation. In addition, participants in the operation later received medals engraved with the period from February 20 to March 18, 2014. A hacker attack on the email account of a Putin adviser revealed that these medals had already been produced in the fall of 2013. This information suggests that Russia had been preparing the annexation of Crimea for months before it was actually carried out.